Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity: Local business conditions: Future (increase vs decrease; diffusion index; percentage points; seasonally unadjusted) - United States - Richmond FED - Monthly
This series is part of the dataset: Fifth District Survey of Non-Manufacturing Activity (Richmond FED)
Download Full Dataset (.xlsx)Latest updates. According to survey data about nonmanufacturing firms based in the Fifth District, the seasonally unadjusted diffusion index for local business conditions (share of CEOs seeing a future improvement minus share forecasting a worsening) stood at -3.0 in September 2026, compared to 8.0 in the previous month.
Sample. There are 190 records overall in the monthly time series displayed in the graph above. The series covers the period going from December 2010 to September 2026.
History. Here's a peek at a few statistics computed on the full sample: the diffusion index had a mean of 20.4; it reached its maximum of 63.0 in April 2021; it reached its lowest level of -43.0 in April 2020.
Latest values
| Date | Value - Percentage points |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-31 | 6.00000 |
| 2026-08-31 | 8.00000 |
| 2026-09-30 | -3.00000 |
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Series Metadata
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Description | Diffusion index for the question: Will local business conditions improve or worsen over the next six months? |
| Country | United States |
| Economic concept | Business survey response |
| Data type | Leading indicator of the business cycle |
| Deflation method | Not applicable |
| Seasonally adjusted | No |
| Rescaling | None |
| Frequency | Monthly |
| Unit | Percentage points |
| Source | Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond |
| Source type | Central bank |
| Data licence | Not copyrightable under U.S. law |
| Measure type | Diffusion index (share of respondents reporting an increase minus share reporting a decrease) |
| Other information | Not available |
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